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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League C, group 1 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3) · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Belarus — Albania

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Model prediction for 15 November

Belarus18%
Draw30%
Albania51%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Albania are clear favourites: 51% against 18% for the opponent, draw 30%.

The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 37%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Belarus 1537, Albania 1612 — Albania rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Belarus — No. 3, 7 pts; Albania — No. 1, 9 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Belarus 0 wins, Albania 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Belarus — Albania What is xG?0.7–1.3
Belarus not to lose49%
Albania not to lose82%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes37%
Both teams to score: no63%
Total over 2.531%
Total under 2.569%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Belarus
  • Belarus goals
  • Albania goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatBelarusAlbania
Goals scored per match1.01.2
Goals conceded per match1.50.9
xG per match0.781.31
Opponents’ xG1.720.75
Shots9.913.1
On target2.53.7
Corners3.35.1
Cards2.92.1
Possession, %3854

Averages per match: Belarus — the last 8, Albania — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Belarus

  • 06.10Finland1:0
  • 03.10San Marino4:0
  • 29.09away · Finland0:0
  • 26.09away · Albania0:2
  • 09.06Burkina Faso2:2

Albania

  • 06.10San Marino2:1
  • 03.10away · Finland1:2
  • 29.09away · San Marino3:0
  • 26.09Belarus2:0
  • 06.06Luxembourg0:1

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Albania — Belarus2:0
  • 18.11.2020Albania — Belarus3:2
  • 04.09.2020Belarus — Albania0:2

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAlbania43018–3+59
2, Promotion play-offsFinland42119–2+77
3Belarus42115–2+37
4San Marino40041–16-150

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusMontenegropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • LatviaArmeniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • FinlandSan Marinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:04.0
  • BelgiumItalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • FranceTurkiyepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
  • CroatiaCzechiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
  • SpainEnglandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →