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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League C, group 2 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3) · Alphamega Stadium

Cyprus — Montenegro

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Model prediction for 15 November

Cyprus28%
Draw27%
Montenegro45%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Montenegro are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 27%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Cyprus 1346, Montenegro 1490 — Montenegro clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Cyprus — No. 2, 7 pts; Montenegro — No. 1, 10 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Cyprus 0 wins, Montenegro 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cyprus — Montenegro What is xG?1.2–1.5
Cyprus not to lose55%
Montenegro not to lose72%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.551%
Total under 2.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Cyprus
  • Cyprus goals
  • Montenegro goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatCyprusMontenegro
Goals scored per match1.51.6
Goals conceded per match1.01.9
xG per match1.391.40
Opponents’ xG1.311.10
Shots12.313.9
On target4.15.3
Corners4.55.6
Cards2.61.9
Possession, %5054

Averages per match: Cyprus — the last 8, Montenegro — the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Form

Cyprus

  • 05.10Latvia2:1
  • 02.10Armenia2:0
  • 28.09away · Latvia0:0
  • 25.09away · Montenegro1:2
  • 07.06away · Liechtenstein2:0

Montenegro

  • 05.10Armenia0:0
  • 02.10away · Latvia2:1
  • 28.09away · Armenia3:2
  • 25.09Cyprus2:1
  • 05.06away · Slovakia2:2

Head to head

  • 25.09.2026Montenegro — Cyprus2:1
  • 17.11.2020Montenegro — Cyprus4:0
  • 05.09.2020Cyprus — Montenegro0:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveMontenegro43107–4+310
2, Promotion play-offsCyprus42115–3+27
3Armenia41124–5-14
4Latvia40132–6-41

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • LatviaArmeniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • BelarusAlbaniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.0
  • FinlandSan Marinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:04.0
  • BelgiumItalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • FranceTurkiyepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
  • CroatiaCzechiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
  • SpainEnglandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →