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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League C, group 1 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3) · Bolt Arena

Finland — San Marino

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Model prediction for 15 November

Finland96%
Draw3%
San Marino0%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Finland are clear favourites: 96% against 0% for the opponent, draw 3%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 4.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 77%, both teams to score — 28%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Finland 1530, San Marino 820 — Finland clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Finland — No. 2, 7 pts; San Marino — No. 4, 0 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Finland 3 wins, San Marino 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Finland — San Marino What is xG?3.7–0.3
Finland not to lose100%
San Marino not to lose4%
No draw97%
Both teams to score: yes28%
Both teams to score: no72%
Total over 2.577%
Total under 2.523%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Finland
  • Finland goals
  • San Marino goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatFinlandSan Marino
Goals scored per match1.30.3
Goals conceded per match1.45.3
xG per match0.870.53
Opponents’ xG0.513.46
Shots12.15.3
On target4.31.4
Corners5.82.0
Cards1.33.0
Possession, %5429

Averages per match: Finland — the last 10, San Marino — the last 7 matches in all competitions.

Form

Finland

  • 06.10away · Belarus0:1
  • 03.10Albania2:1
  • 29.09Belarus0:0
  • 26.09away · San Marino7:0
  • 05.06away · Hungary1:2

San Marino

  • 06.10away · Albania1:2
  • 03.10away · Belarus0:4
  • 29.09Albania0:3
  • 26.09Finland0:7
  • 09.06away · Azerbaijan1:2

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026San Marino — Finland0:7
  • 20.11.2023San Marino — Finland1:2
  • 19.06.2023Finland — San Marino6:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAlbania43018–3+59
2, Promotion play-offsFinland42119–2+77
3Belarus42115–2+37
4San Marino40041–16-150

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusMontenegropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • LatviaArmeniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • BelarusAlbaniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.0
  • BelgiumItalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • FranceTurkiyepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
  • CroatiaCzechiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
  • SpainEnglandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 96% will not happen in roughly 4 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →