PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

UEFA Nations League, round 6, League A, group 3 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3) · Wanda Metropolitano

Spain — England

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 15 November

Spain56%
Draw25%
England19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Spain are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Spain 2287, England 2146 — Spain clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Spain — No. 1, 12 pts; England — No. 2, 9 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 2 meetings: Spain 2 wins, England 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Spain — England What is xG?1.7–0.9
Spain not to lose81%
England not to lose44%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Spain
  • Spain goals
  • England goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSpainEngland
Goals scored per match2.23.0
Goals conceded per match0.61.3
xG per match1.922.09
Opponents’ xG0.591.35
Shots15.014.8
On target6.46.4
Corners5.74.7
Cards0.91.3
Possession, %6354

Averages per match: Spain — the last 10, England — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Spain

  • 06.10away · Croatia2:1
  • 03.10Czechia3:1
  • 29.09Croatia4:1
  • 26.09away · England3:2
  • 19.07Argentina1:0

England

  • 06.10Czechia3:0
  • 03.10away · Croatia7:0
  • 29.09away · Czechia2:0
  • 26.09Spain2:3
  • 19.07away · France6:4

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026England — Spain2:3
  • 14.07.2024Spain — England2:1

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsSpain440012–5+712
2, Quarter-finalsEngland430114–3+119
3, Relegation play-offCroatia41034–14-103
4, RelegationCzechia40042–10-80

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusMontenegropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • LatviaArmeniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • BelarusAlbaniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.0
  • FinlandSan Marinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:04.0
  • BelgiumItalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • FranceTurkiyepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
  • CroatiaCzechiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →