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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League A, group 3 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3) · Opus Arena

Croatia — Czechia

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Model prediction for 15 November

Croatia61%
Draw22%
Czechia17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Croatia are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Croatia 1856, Czechia 1656 — Croatia clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Croatia — No. 3, 3 pts; Czechia — No. 4, 0 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 4 meetings: Croatia 2 wins, Czechia 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Croatia — Czechia What is xG?2.1–1.1
Croatia not to lose83%
Czechia not to lose39%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.560%
Total under 2.540%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Croatia
  • Croatia goals
  • Czechia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatCroatiaCzechia
Goals scored per match1.21.4
Goals conceded per match2.42.0
xG per match0.891.12
Opponents’ xG1.651.51
Shots10.710.1
On target3.73.1
Corners3.54.4
Cards1.41.3
Possession, %4843

Averages per match: Croatia — the last 10, Czechia — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Croatia

  • 06.10Spain1:2
  • 03.10England0:7
  • 29.09away · Spain1:4
  • 26.09away · Czechia2:1
  • 03.07away · Portugal1:2

Czechia

  • 06.10away · England0:3
  • 03.10away · Spain1:3
  • 29.09England0:2
  • 26.09Croatia1:2
  • 25.06Mexico0:3

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Czechia — Croatia1:2
  • 09.10.2025Czechia — Croatia0:0
  • 09.06.2025Croatia — Czechia5:1
  • 18.06.2021Croatia — Czechia1:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsSpain440012–5+712
2, Quarter-finalsEngland430114–3+119
3, Relegation play-offCroatia41034–14-103
4, RelegationCzechia40042–10-80

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusMontenegropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • LatviaArmeniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • BelarusAlbaniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.0
  • FinlandSan Marinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:04.0
  • BelgiumItalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • FranceTurkiyepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
  • SpainEnglandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →