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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League A, group 1 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3) · Stade Matmut Atlantique

France — Turkiye

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Model prediction for 15 November

France79%
Draw14%
Turkiye7%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

France are clear favourites: 79% against 7% for the opponent, draw 14%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: France 2104, Turkiye 1768 — France clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: France — No. 1, 10 pts; Turkiye — No. 4, 0 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: France 1 win, Turkiye 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: France — Turkiye What is xG?2.8–0.9
France not to lose93%
Turkiye not to lose21%
No draw86%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.571%
Total under 2.529%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap France
  • France goals
  • Turkiye goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatFranceTurkiye
Goals scored per match2.11.2
Goals conceded per match1.11.7
xG per match1.861.41
Opponents’ xG1.121.13
Shots18.018.2
On target7.35.3
Corners6.57.4
Cards1.11.9
Possession, %6056

Averages per match: France — the last 10, Turkiye — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

France

  • 05.10Belgium4:1
  • 02.10Italy1:1
  • 28.09away · Belgium1:0
  • 25.09away · Turkiye1:0
  • 19.07England4:6

Turkiye

  • 05.10away · Italy1:3
  • 02.10away · Belgium0:3
  • 28.09Italy1:4
  • 25.09France0:1
  • 26.06USA3:2

Head to head

  • 25.09.2026Turkiye — France0:1
  • 14.10.2019France — Turkiye1:1
  • 08.06.2019Turkiye — France2:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsFrance43107–2+510
2, Quarter-finalsItaly42118–5+37
3Belgium42026–5+16
4, RelegationTurkiye40042–11-90

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusMontenegropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • LatviaArmeniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • BelarusAlbaniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.0
  • FinlandSan Marinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:04.0
  • BelgiumItalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
  • CroatiaCzechiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
  • SpainEnglandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →