UEFA Nations League, round 6, League A, group 1 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3) · King Baudouin Stadium
Belgium — Italy
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Belgium are slightly stronger: 45% against 29%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Belgium 1956, Italy 1910 — Belgium rated higher.
Facts
- League table: Belgium — No. 3, 6 pts; Italy — No. 2, 7 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Belgium 1 win, Italy 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Belgium — Italy What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Belgium not to lose | 71% | |
| Italy not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Belgium
- Belgium goals
- Italy goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Belgium | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.62 | 1.39 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.43 | 1.16 |
| Shots | 16.5 | 16.0 |
| On target | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 5.8 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 51 |
Form
Head to head
- 25.09.2026Italy — Belgium0:2
- 14.11.2024Belgium — Italy0:1
- 10.10.2024Italy — Belgium2:2
- 10.10.2021Italy — Belgium2:1
- 02.07.2021Belgium — Italy1:2
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- CyprusMontenegropreliminary2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- LatviaArmeniapreliminary3229392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- BelarusAlbaniapreliminary1830512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.0
- FinlandSan Marinopreliminary96301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:04.0
- FranceTurkiyepreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
- CroatiaCzechiapreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- SpainEnglandpreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →