Serie B, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Benevento — Avellino
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Benevento are clear favourites: 52% against 20% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Benevento higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Benevento — No. 7, 15 pts; Avellino — No. 6, 15 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Benevento — Avellino What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Benevento not to lose | 80% | |
| Avellino not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Benevento
- Benevento goals
- Avellino goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Benevento | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.56 | 1.36 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 14.6 |
| On target | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 4.1 |
| Cards | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 50 |
Form
- 31.10away · Cremonese0:2
- 27.10Catanzaro1:1
- 24.10away · Arezzo3:0
- 17.10LR Vicenza2:2
- 10.10Cesena2:0
- 01.11Pisa2:0
- 27.10away · Virtus Entella1:1
- 24.10Padova0:1
- 18.10away · Cesena1:1
- 09.10Sampdoria4:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Hellas Verona | 10 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Avellino | 10 | 4 | +5 | 15 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Benevento | 10 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | Pisa | 10 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
Serie B on the same day
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 5626181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 4631231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 3430362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →