Serie B, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Cesena — Catanzaro
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Cesena are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cesena are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Cesena are 63 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Cesena — No. 13, 12 pts; Catanzaro — No. 20, 6 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Catanzaro: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Cesena 2 wins, Catanzaro 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cesena — Catanzaro What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Cesena not to lose | 76% | |
| Catanzaro not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cesena
- Cesena goals
- Catanzaro goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Cesena | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| xG per match | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.20 | 1.96 |
| Shots | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| On target | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 45 | 53 |
Form
- 31.10away · Südtirol1:1
- 27.10Empoli2:1
- 24.10away · Modena0:3
- 18.10Avellino1:1
- 10.10away · Benevento0:2
- 31.10Padova1:1
- 27.10away · Benevento1:1
- 24.10Ascoli1:6
- 16.10away · Hellas Verona2:2
- 11.10Mantova1:3
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Cesena — Catanzaro3:1
- 27.12.2025Catanzaro — Cesena2:0
- 17.05.2025Catanzaro — Cesena1:0
- 01.02.2025Catanzaro — Cesena4:2
- 28.08.2024Cesena — Catanzaro2:0
Table
Serie B on the same day
- 5626181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 4631231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 3430362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 5228201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →