Serie B, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Padova — Empoli

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 7 November

Padova46%

Draw31%

Empoli23%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Padova are clear favourites: 46% against 23% for the opponent, draw 31%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

Padova are 149 points higher on Elo.
In recent matches the betting market rated Padova higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Padova — No. 10, 14 pts; Empoli — No. 18, 8 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Empoli: winless in 5.
Last 2 meetings: Padova 1 win, Empoli 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Padova — Empoli What is xG?		1.5–1.1
Padova not to lose		77%
Empoli not to lose		54%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Padova
Padova goals
Empoli goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Padova	Empoli
Goals scored per match	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.1	1.7
xG per match	0.98	0.95
Opponents’ xG	1.89	1.67
Shots	10.3	11.2
On target	2.9	3.6
Corners	4.2	4.2
Cards	2.3	2.3
Possession, %	42	45

Averages per match: Padova — the last 10, Empoli — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Padova

31.10away · Catanzaro1:1
27.10Südtirol2:0
24.10away · Avellino1:0
17.10Virtus Entella1:2
11.10Carrarese0:2

Empoli

01.11Juve Stabia2:2
27.10away · Cesena1:2
23.10LR Vicenza0:2
17.10away · Ascoli1:1
10.10Palermo2:4

Head to head

12.04.2026Padova — Empoli1:0
23.08.2025Empoli — Padova3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Südtirol	10	3	5	2	11–10	+1	14
10	Padova	10	4	2	4	10–11	-1	14
11	Juve Stabia	10	3	4	3	11–11	0	13
17, Relegation play-off	LR Vicenza	10	2	3	5	13–20	-7	9
18, Relegation	Empoli	10	2	2	6	10–17	-7	8
19, Relegation	Sampdoria	10	2	2	6	10–18	-8	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

17:00
CesenaCatanzaro
492724
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
17:00
Juve StabiaArezzo
562618
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
17:00
PisaSüdtirol
622315
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
19:15
MantovaHellas Verona
343036
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
21:30
BeneventoAvellino
522820
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →