Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Boca Juniors — Defensa y Justicia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Boca Juniors are clear favourites: 66% against 12% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Boca Juniors are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Boca Juniors are 225 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Boca Juniors: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Boca Juniors 2 wins, Defensa y Justicia 1, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Boca Juniors 6, Defensa y Justicia 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Boca Juniors — Defensa y Justicia What is xG? | 1.8–0.7 | |
| Boca Juniors not to lose | 88% | |
| Defensa y Justicia not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors goals
- Defensa y Justicia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Boca Juniors | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 1.11 | 1.50 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.31 | 1.19 |
| Shots | 13.9 | 14.4 |
| On target | 4.4 | 5.4 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 3.6 |
| Cards | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 61 | 52 |
Form
- 01.11River Plate1:0
- 25.10away · Independiente1:0
- 21.10away · Vasco da Gama3:1
- 17.10Talleres2:1
- 14.10Vasco da Gama0:1
- 03.11Independiente1:1
- 24.10away · Talleres2:1
- 17.10Instituto0:1
- 10.10away · Unión2:0
- 03.10San Lorenzo3:0
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Defensa y Justicia — Boca Juniors0:4
- 28.09.2025Defensa y Justicia — Boca Juniors2:1
- 17.03.2025Boca Juniors — Defensa y Justicia4:0
- 22.07.2024Defensa y Justicia — Boca Juniors2:2
- 07.03.2023Boca Juniors — Defensa y Justicia0:0
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 383329XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- 4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 4832201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- 363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- 6025151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- 3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- 3831311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- 5428181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →