Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Tigre — Sarmiento
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Tigre are clear favourites: 60% against 15% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tigre are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Tigre are 99 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Sarmiento: winless in 4.
- Last 4 meetings: Tigre 1 win, Sarmiento 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tigre — Sarmiento What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Tigre not to lose | 85% | |
| Sarmiento not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Tigre to win” at 60%, the market at 51%.
- Tigre to winModel60%odds 1.67Market51%odds 1.94
- DrawModel25%odds 4.00Market28%odds 3.54
- Sarmiento to winModel15%odds 6.67Market20%odds 4.93
- Total over 2.5Model43%odds 2.33Market39%odds 2.60
- Total under 2.5Model57%odds 1.75Market62%odds 1.63
- Both teams to score: yesModel44%odds 2.27Market43%odds 2.35
- Both teams to score: noModel56%odds 1.79Market57%odds 1.74
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tigre
- Tigre goals
- Sarmiento goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Tigre | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.49 | 1.09 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.30 | 1.57 |
| Shots | 13.7 | 10.4 |
| On target | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 2.9 |
| Cards | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 36 |
Form
- 31.10away · Huracán2:0
- 24.10Atlético Tucumán0:1
- 17.10away · Independiente Rivadavia2:2
- 11.10Banfield1:2
- 05.10away · Argentinos Juniors1:2
- 31.10Rosario Central1:2
- 24.10away · Gimnasia La Plata0:2
- 20.10Barracas Central1:1
- 15.10River Plate1:1
- 09.10away · Aldosivi3:1
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Sarmiento — Tigre1:0
- 18.08.2024Sarmiento — Tigre0:0
- 14.04.2023Tigre — Sarmiento1:0
- 05.10.2022Sarmiento — Tigre2:2
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 383329XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- 4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 4832201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- 363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- 3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- 3831311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- 6622121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 5428181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →