Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Independiente — Deportivo Riestra
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Independiente are clear favourites: 48% against 20% for the opponent, draw 32%.
1.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 37%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Independiente are 199 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Independiente: winless in 5; Deportivo Riestra: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Independiente 2 wins, Deportivo Riestra 1, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Independiente 4, Deportivo Riestra 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente — Deportivo Riestra What is xG? | 1.2–0.7 | |
| Independiente not to lose | 80% | |
| Deportivo Riestra not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 37% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 63% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 31% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 69% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Independiente to win” at 48%, the market at 60%.
- Independiente to winModel48%odds 2.08Market60%odds 1.67
- DrawModel32%odds 3.13Market25%odds 3.94
- Deportivo Riestra to winModel20%odds 5.00Market15%odds 6.73
- Total over 2.5Model31%odds 3.23Market37%odds 2.73
- Total under 2.5Model69%odds 1.45Market63%odds 1.58
- Both teams to score: yesModel37%odds 2.70Market37%odds 2.74
- Both teams to score: noModel63%odds 1.59Market63%odds 1.58
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente
- Independiente goals
- Deportivo Riestra goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Independiente | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.02 | 0.68 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.04 | 0.84 |
| Shots | 13.7 | 11.0 |
| On target | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 34 |
Form
- 03.11away · Defensa y Justicia1:1
- 25.10Boca Juniors0:1
- 18.10away · Racing Club1:1
- 12.10away · Talleres0:0
- 03.10Instituto1:4
- 31.10Talleres0:3
- 27.10away · Instituto0:1
- 20.10Unión1:1
- 11.10away · San Lorenzo0:1
- 05.10Central Córdoba1:1
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Deportivo Riestra — Independiente2:0
- 11.11.2025Deportivo Riestra — Independiente0:1
- 28.04.2025Independiente — Deportivo Riestra0:0
- 06.10.2024Independiente — Deportivo Riestra3:1
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 383329XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- 4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- 6025151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- 3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- 3831311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- 6622121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 5428181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →