Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Unión — Vélez Sarsfield
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Unión are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Unión are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Unión 2 wins, Vélez Sarsfield 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Unión — Vélez Sarsfield What is xG? | 1.3–1.1 | |
| Unión not to lose | 69% | |
| Vélez Sarsfield not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
Model vs market
The model agrees with the market: no outcome differs by more than 4 points.
- Unión to winModel41%odds 2.44Market37%odds 2.68
- DrawModel28%odds 3.57Market29%odds 3.42
- Vélez Sarsfield to winModel31%odds 3.23Market33%odds 2.99
- Total over 2.5Model44%odds 2.27Market45%odds 2.22
- Total under 2.5Model56%odds 1.79Market55%odds 1.82
- Both teams to score: yesModel51%odds 1.96Market53%odds 1.89
- Both teams to score: noModel49%odds 2.04Market47%odds 2.12
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Unión | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| Shots | 14.7 | 14.2 |
| On target | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 56 |
Form
- 02.11away · Newell's Old Boys1:1
- 27.10Estudiantes3:1
- 20.10away · Deportivo Riestra1:1
- 10.10Defensa y Justicia0:2
- 03.10away · Boca Juniors0:3
- 01.11San Lorenzo2:2
- 26.10away · Central Córdoba5:0
- 18.10Gimnasia Mendoza1:0
- 12.10away · Lanús0:2
- 06.10Platense2:2
Head to head
- 28.04.2026Vélez Sarsfield — Unión2:2
- 08.12.2024Unión — Vélez Sarsfield1:0
- 24.07.2023Vélez Sarsfield — Unión0:0
- 07.08.2022Unión — Vélez Sarsfield2:1
- 07.09.2021Vélez Sarsfield — Unión4:0
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 383329XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- 4832201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- 363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- 6025151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- 3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- 3831311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- 6622121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 5428181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →