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Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo

Cancún FC — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Cancún FC60%
Draw25%
Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero15%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Cancún FC to win (60%), came true.

Cancún FC are clear favourites: 60% against 15% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects few goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Cancún FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Cancún FC are 167 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Cancún FC: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Cancún FC 1 win, Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cancún FC — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero What is xG?1.7–0.8
Cancún FC not to lose85%
Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero not to lose40%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

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  • Handicap Cancún FC
  • Cancún FC goals
  • Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 3′Rodrigo Reyes · Cancún FC
  2. 18′Iván Ochoa · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  3. 69′Gipson Preciado · Cancún FC1:0
  4. 74′Edson Arce · Cancún FC
  5. 76′José Rodríguez · Cancún FC
  6. 81′Óscar Manzanárez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  7. 94′Gipson Preciado · Cancún FC2:0
Substitutions (10)
  1. 63′Jair Cortés ↔ Rodrigo Reyes · Cancún FC
  2. 63′Jonathan Tovar ↔ Jesús López · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  3. 76′Leonel López ↔ Christo Vela · Cancún FC
  4. 76′Cesar Salaya ↔ Thiago Gigena · Cancún FC
  5. 79′Néstor Corona ↔ Ricardo Peña · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  6. 79′Sebastián Martínez ↔ Ian Ramírez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  7. 85′Daniel Guillén ↔ Jonathan Hernández · Cancún FC
  8. 85′Christopher Trejo ↔ José Rodríguez · Cancún FC
  9. 90′André Ham ↔ Óscar Manzanárez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  10. 90′Eduardo Escalante ↔ Daniel López · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero

Match statistics

Cancún FCJaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  • 1.56Expected goals (xG)0.37
  • 44Possession, %56
  • 9Shots5
  • 3On target2
  • 1Big chances1
  • 6Corners3
  • 4Fouls7
  • 5Offsides2
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Cancún FC

  1. GKEdson Arce7.8
  2. DFAlek Álvarez8.5
  3. DFRodrigo Reyes63′7.2
  4. DFJonathan Hernández85′8.0
  5. DFLuis Bustillos7.5
  6. MFChristo Vela76′6.9
  7. MFKarel Campos6.9
  8. MFArmando Chávez7.2
  9. FWThiago Gigena76′6.7
  10. FWGipson Preciado9.0
  11. FWJosé Rodríguez (C)85′6.4
Came on (5)
  1. DFDaniel Guillén5′
  2. MFLeonel López14′6.7
  3. DFJair Cortés27′7.1
  4. FWChristopher Trejo5′
  5. MFCesar Salaya14′6.1

Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero

  1. GKGerardo Ruiz (C)5.5
  2. DFÓscar Manzanárez89′6.9
  3. DFIan Ramírez79′6.9
  4. DFAlberto Ríos6.6
  5. MFAxl Padilla6.7
  6. MFIván Ochoa5.9
  7. MFRicardo Peña79′6.4
  8. MFÉdson Torres7.2
  9. FWDaniel López89′5.8
  10. FWJesús López63′6.0
  11. FWCristian Cruz6.3
Came on (5)
  1. DFSebastián Martínez11′6.7
  2. FWNéstor Corona11′5.7
  3. DFJonathan Tovar27′6.2
  4. FWAndré Ham1′
  5. MFEduardo Escalante1′

Form

Cancún FC

  • 24.10away · Tepatitlán FC4:0
  • 18.10Venados FC1:1
  • 11.10away · Mineros de Zacatecas2:2
  • 04.10Tapatío1:0
  • 27.09away · Tlaxcala FC1:4

Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero

  • 25.10Atlético La Paz1:3
  • 18.10away · Atlético Morelia2:1
  • 11.10Alacranes de Durango0:0
  • 03.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:3
  • 26.09away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:1

Head to head

  • 04.05.2026Cancún FC — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:1
  • 01.05.2026Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Cancún FC2:1
  • 01.03.2026Cancún FC — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:2
  • 21.09.2025Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Cancún FC2:1
  • 09.02.2025Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Cancún FC0:2

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4Piratas1574427–15+1225
5Cancún FC1574428–18+1025
6Venados FC1574431–25+625
13Dorados1544723–32-916
14Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1543815–25-1015
15Cruz Azul Hidalgo1535717–24-714

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next match

  • Cancún FCPiratas6 November · Liga de Expansion MX
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →