PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Refundación

Cruz Azul Hidalgo — Tlaxcala FC

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Cruz Azul Hidalgo46%
Draw28%
Tlaxcala FC27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Cruz Azul Hidalgo to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 28%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Cruz Azul Hidalgo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • Tlaxcala FC: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cruz Azul Hidalgo — Tlaxcala FC What is xG?1.6–1.2
Cruz Azul Hidalgo not to lose73%
Tlaxcala FC not to lose54%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

91 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  • Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals
  • Tlaxcala FC goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Match events

  1. 9′Kenneth González · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  2. 25′Jesús Lara · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  3. 32′Jesús Lara · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  4. 49′Diego Valdéz · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  5. 59′Mario Trejo · Tlaxcala FC0:1
  6. 64′Emmanuel Sánchez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  7. 66′Emmanuel Sánchez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  8. 72′José Suárez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  9. 80′Erick Robles · penalty · Tlaxcala FC0:2
  10. 88′Edson García · Tlaxcala FC
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Giovani Hernández ↔ Julian Freyfeld · Tlaxcala FC
  2. 46′Christian ↔ Daniel Álvarez · Tlaxcala FC
  3. 46′Iván Silva ↔ Kenneth González · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  4. 46′Josué Díaz ↔ Eric Villegas · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  5. 46′Ian Ramirez ↔ Sergio de los Ríos · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  6. 70′Cristhian Leon ↔ Diego Valdéz · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  7. 71′Fernando Plascencia ↔ Ismael Govea · Tlaxcala FC
  8. 71′Cristian González ↔ Andrés Iniestra · Tlaxcala FC
  9. 79′Ángel Saavedra ↔ Fernando Sámano · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
  10. 81′Raúl Camacho ↔ Miguel Ramírez · Tlaxcala FC

Match statistics

Cruz Azul HidalgoTlaxcala FC
  • 0.21Expected goals (xG)1.51
  • 40Possession, %60
  • 5Shots17
  • 3On target6
  • 0Big chances1
  • 0Corners11
  • 12Fouls8
  • 1Offsides4
  • 4Yellow cards1
  • 2Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

  1. GKEmmanuel Ochoa6.2
  2. DFJosé Suárez (C)6.4
  3. DFKarol Velázquez6.5
  4. DFSergio de los Ríos45′6.8
  5. DFEric Villegas45′6.6
  6. MFEmmanuel Sánchez66′4.6
  7. MFFernando Sámano79′6.0
  8. MFKenneth González45′6.6
  9. FWJuan Calero6.3
  10. FWDiego Valdéz70′6.1
  11. FWJesús Lara32′4.8
Came on (5)
  1. DFJosué Díaz45′6.7
  2. DFIván Silva45′5.7
  3. MFIan Ramirez45′6.2
  4. MFÁngel Saavedra11′6.3
  5. MFCristhian Leon20′6.2

Tlaxcala FC

  1. GKNorberto Bedolla7.2
  2. DFIsmael Govea (C)71′6.8
  3. DFEdson García7.5
  4. DFErick Robles8.3
  5. DFJulian Freyfeld45′6.7
  6. MFAndrés Iniestra71′7.1
  7. MFPablo González7.8
  8. MFMiguel Ramírez81′7.6
  9. MFMario Trejo7.9
  10. MFEdson Santos7.5
  11. FWDaniel Álvarez45′6.3
Came on (5)
  1. FWRaúl Camacho9′
  2. DFCristian González19′5.9
  3. MFChristian45′6.1
  4. MFFernando Plascencia19′6.6
  5. MFGiovani Hernández45′8.2

Form

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

  • 23.10away · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
  • 17.10Mineros de Zacatecas2:1
  • 11.10away · Dorados3:1
  • 03.10away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:0
  • 26.09Leones Negros1:2

Tlaxcala FC

  • 25.10Correcaminos de la UAT2:0
  • 17.10away · Atlético La Paz2:2
  • 11.10Piratas4:2
  • 04.10away · Atlético Morelia1:1
  • 27.09Cancún FC4:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7Alacranes de Durango1573521–15+624
8Tlaxcala FC1564529–27+222
9Alebrijes Oaxaca1571715–25-1022
14Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1543815–25-1015
15Cruz Azul Hidalgo1535717–24-714
16Tepatitlán FC15211211–44-337

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next match

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →