Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Jalisco
Leones Negros — Tepatitlán FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Leones Negros to win (74%), came true.
Leones Negros are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Leones Negros are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Leones Negros are 284 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Tepatitlán FC: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Leones Negros 1 win, Tepatitlán FC 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leones Negros — Tepatitlán FC What is xG? | 2.4–0.8 | |
| Leones Negros not to lose | 91% | |
| Tepatitlán FC not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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Match events
- 13′Samuel González · Tepatitlán FC
- 16′Sergio Hernández · Leones Negros1:0
- 22′Diéter Villalpando · Tepatitlán FC1:1
- 23′Juan Agüayo · Leones Negros
- 33′Neri Martinez · Tepatitlán FC
- 37′Bryan Casas · Tepatitlán FC
- 47′Óscar Gil · Leones Negros2:1
- 59′Leonardo Sepúlveda · Leones Negros
- 65′Diéter Villalpando · Tepatitlán FC
- 80′Ulises Torres · Leones Negros
- 89′Leonardo Sepúlveda · Leones Negros3:1
Substitutions (9)
- 46′Olaf González ↔ Juan Agüayo · Leones Negros
- 46′Alejandro Bravo ↔ Alejandro Carreón · Leones Negros
- 58′Kevin Loera ↔ Luis Razo · Leones Negros
- 63′Joel Pérez ↔ Jesús Brígido · Leones Negros
- 67′Juan Cázares ↔ Miguel Nuño · Leones Negros
- 70′Israel Contreras ↔ Jose Ríos · Tepatitlán FC
- 70′Leonardo Bolanos ↔ Samuel González · Tepatitlán FC
- 91′Ezequel ↔ Alfonso Tamay · Tepatitlán FC
- 91′Esteban Alcantar ↔ Neri Martinez · Tepatitlán FC
Match statistics
Leones NegrosTepatitlán FC
- 2.77Expected goals (xG)0.52
- 73Possession, %27
- 28Shots10
- 10On target5
- 12Big chances2
- 14Corners3
- 18Fouls11
- 2Offsides3
- 3Yellow cards3
- 0Red cards1
Form
- 25.10away · Mineros de Zacatecas2:0
- 18.10Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
- 11.10away · Venados FC1:1
- 04.10Dorados6:3
- 26.09away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:1
- 24.10Cancún FC0:4
- 18.10away · Piratas0:3
- 14.10away · Tapatío1:4
- 10.10Atlético Morelia1:1
- 03.10Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero3:1
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Leones Negros — Tepatitlán FC0:0
- 08.09.2025Tepatitlán FC — Leones Negros1:1
- 27.04.2025Leones Negros — Tepatitlán FC2:1
- 25.04.2025Tepatitlán FC — Leones Negros2:1
- 01.03.2025Tepatitlán FC — Leones Negros1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético La Paz | 15 | 9 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético Morelia | 15 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán FC | 15 | 2 | -33 | 7 |
Next match
- Alacranes de DurangoLeones Negros6 November · Liga de Expansion MX4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 4628271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 4631231The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.5
- 6321151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →