Copa del Rey, round 1 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio El Bayu
CD Covadonga — Real Valladolid
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Real Valladolid to win (61%), came true.
Real Valladolid are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Valladolid are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Real Valladolid are 161 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CD Covadonga — Real Valladolid What is xG? | 0.9–2.0 | |
| CD Covadonga not to lose | 39% | |
| Real Valladolid not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap CD Covadonga
- CD Covadonga goals
- Real Valladolid goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Match events
- 12′Robin van Duiven · Real Valladolid0:1
Form
- 23.10away · Granada1:2
- 18.10Eldense2:3
- 12.10Albacete5:0
- 04.10away · Las Palmas2:2
- 27.09Córdoba3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- Real ValladolidLeganés2 November · Segunda Division5924171The most likely outcome came true: 14:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
Copa del Rey on the same day
- 1219682The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.3.1
- 2024562The most likely outcome came true: 21:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 0:2.2.9
- 714802The most likely outcome came true: 20:6Final score 0:6. Model's score: 0:4.3.4
- 2525502The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 815782The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.3
- 1923582The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- San Sebastian de los ReyesCD Coriafinal 1:2 (90 min 1:1)4326311The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →