J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 09:00 (UTC+3)

Cerezo Osaka — FC Tokyo

Model prediction for 21 November

Cerezo Osaka20%

Draw25%

FC Tokyo55%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

FC Tokyo are clear favourites: 55% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

By the strength ratings FC Tokyo are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
FC Tokyo are 84 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Cerezo Osaka — No. 12, 14 pts; FC Tokyo — No. 1, 30 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
Cerezo Osaka: winless in 5; FC Tokyo: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Cerezo Osaka 1 win, FC Tokyo 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka — FC Tokyo What is xG?		1.1–1.9
Cerezo Osaka not to lose		45%
FC Tokyo not to lose		80%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		59%
Both teams to score: no		41%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka goals
FC Tokyo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Cerezo Osaka	FC Tokyo
Goals scored per match	1.0	2.6
Goals conceded per match	1.9	0.1
xG per match	1.19	2.21
Opponents’ xG	1.73	0.73
Shots	14.5	17.6
On target	3.5	6.0
Corners	5.0	5.8
Cards	2.4	1.2
Possession, %	52	57

Averages per match: Cerezo Osaka — the last 10, FC Tokyo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Cerezo Osaka

31.10away · Kashima Antlers1:4
25.10JEF United Chiba2:2
21.10away · Nagoya Grampus1:1
17.10Kawasaki Frontale2:4
10.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0

FC Tokyo

31.10away · Fagiano Okayama FC4:0
25.10Mito Hollyhock6:0
21.10Kashiwa Reysol0:0
17.10away · Tokyo Verdy4:0
10.10Urawa Red Diamonds3:0

Head to head

06.06.2026FC Tokyo — Cerezo Osaka1:3
30.05.2026Cerezo Osaka — FC Tokyo2:2
14.06.2025FC Tokyo — Cerezo Osaka2:2
20.04.2025Cerezo Osaka — FC Tokyo1:1
08.12.2024FC Tokyo — Cerezo Osaka3:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1	FC Tokyo	13	9	3	1	31–8	+23	30
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	13	9	2	2	32–10	+22	29
11	Nagoya Grampus	13	4	2	7	15–21	-6	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13–23	-10	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10–22	-12	14

Season 2026/27

Full table

J1 League on the same day

08:00
Kyoto Sanga FCUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary
312841
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
08:00
Machida ZelviaV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary
642313
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
08:00
Sanfrecce HiroshimaYokohama F.Marinospreliminary
701911
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
08:00
Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampuspreliminary
303139
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
09:00
Kawasaki FrontaleAvispa Fukuokapreliminary
552718
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
10:00
Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary
442927
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →