J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Machida Zelvia — V-Varen Nagasaki
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Machida Zelvia are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Machida Zelvia are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Machida Zelvia are 291 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Machida Zelvia — No. 3, 28 pts; V-Varen Nagasaki — No. 15, 12 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Machida Zelvia: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Machida Zelvia — V-Varen Nagasaki What is xG? | 1.9–0.8 | |
| Machida Zelvia not to lose | 87% | |
| V-Varen Nagasaki not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia goals
- V-Varen Nagasaki goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Machida Zelvia | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.82 | 1.34 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| Shots | 14.0 | 13.1 |
| On target | 5.6 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Cards | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 44 |
Form
- 01.11Gamba Osaka0:0
- 24.10away · Vissel Kobe0:0
- 21.10away · Shimizu S-Pulse5:0
- 18.10Avispa Fukuoka3:0
- 10.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC1:0
- 01.11Tokyo Verdy1:2
- 25.10away · Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 21.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima4:0
- 17.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 11.10away · JEF United Chiba1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | +22 | 29 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | +20 | 28 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 9 | +10 | 28 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 13 | 3 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | -7 | 12 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kyoto Sanga FCUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaYokohama F.Marinospreliminary7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampuspreliminary3031392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyopreliminary2025552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
- Kawasaki FrontaleAvispa Fukuokapreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary4429271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →