J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Yokohama F.Marinos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites: 70% against 11% for the opponent, draw 19%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sanfrecce Hiroshima are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 162 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Sanfrecce Hiroshima — No. 2, 29 pts; Yokohama F.Marinos — No. 8, 21 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Yokohama F.Marinos: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2 wins, Yokohama F.Marinos 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Yokohama F.Marinos What is xG? | 2.1–0.8 | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to lose | 89% | |
| Yokohama F.Marinos not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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- Handicap Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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- Yokohama F.Marinos goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Yokohama F.Marinos |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 2.17 | 1.34 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.76 | 1.34 |
| Shots | 19.3 | 12.7 |
| On target | 6.6 | 4.2 |
| Corners | 7.9 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 66 | 51 |
Form
- 31.10away · Mito Hollyhock3:0
- 24.10Shimizu S-Pulse4:0
- 21.10away · V-Varen Nagasaki0:4
- 17.10Kyoto Sanga FC3:0
- 11.10away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
- 01.11Kawasaki Frontale4:2
- 25.10away · Nagoya Grampus1:1
- 21.10Tokyo Verdy2:2
- 17.10away · JEF United Chiba0:0
- 10.10away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
Head to head
- 25.10.2025Yokohama F.Marinos — Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:0
- 23.02.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Yokohama F.Marinos1:0
- 22.09.2024Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Yokohama F.Marinos6:2
- 19.06.2024Yokohama F.Marinos — Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- 24.06.2023Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Yokohama F.Marinos0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 13 | 9 | +23 | 30 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | +22 | 29 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | +20 | 28 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 6 | +5 | 22 |
| 8 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 13 | 5 | +6 | 21 |
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 13 | 7 | -6 | 21 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kyoto Sanga FCUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Machida ZelviaV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary6423131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampuspreliminary3031392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyopreliminary2025552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
- Kawasaki FrontaleAvispa Fukuokapreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary4429271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →