J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Kawasaki Frontale — Avispa Fukuoka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kawasaki Frontale are clear favourites: 55% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kawasaki Frontale are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Kawasaki Frontale are 268 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Kawasaki Frontale — No. 7, 22 pts; Avispa Fukuoka — No. 20, 7 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Avispa Fukuoka: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Kawasaki Frontale 3 wins, Avispa Fukuoka 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale — Avispa Fukuoka What is xG? | 1.7–0.9 | |
| Kawasaki Frontale not to lose | 82% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kawasaki Frontale
- Kawasaki Frontale goals
- Avispa Fukuoka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Kawasaki Frontale | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 1.68 | 0.92 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.35 | 1.42 |
| Shots | 15.0 | 10.9 |
| On target | 5.7 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 43 |
Form
- 01.11away · Yokohama F.Marinos2:4
- 25.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 21.10Vissel Kobe2:1
- 17.10away · Cerezo Osaka4:2
- 11.10Nagoya Grampus1:2
- 01.11away · JEF United Chiba0:3
- 24.10away · Tokyo Verdy1:3
- 21.10Gamba Osaka1:2
- 18.10away · Machida Zelvia0:3
- 10.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
Head to head
- 09.08.2025Kawasaki Frontale — Avispa Fukuoka2:5
- 26.02.2025Avispa Fukuoka — Kawasaki Frontale1:2
- 08.12.2024Kawasaki Frontale — Avispa Fukuoka3:1
- 06.05.2024Avispa Fukuoka — Kawasaki Frontale1:1
- 20.10.2023Kawasaki Frontale — Avispa Fukuoka4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 13 | 7 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 6 | +5 | 22 |
| 8 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 13 | 5 | +6 | 21 |
| 19, Relegation | Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | -13 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Avispa Fukuoka | 13 | 2 | -11 | 7 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kyoto Sanga FCUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Machida ZelviaV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary6423131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaYokohama F.Marinospreliminary7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampuspreliminary3031392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyopreliminary2025552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
- Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary4429271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →