J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Gamba Osaka — Fagiano Okayama FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Gamba Osaka are slightly stronger: 44% against 27%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Gamba Osaka are 88 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Gamba Osaka — No. 16, 12 pts; Fagiano Okayama FC — No. 10, 16 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Gamba Osaka: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 4 meetings: Gamba Osaka 1 win, Fagiano Okayama FC 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gamba Osaka — Fagiano Okayama FC What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Gamba Osaka not to lose | 73% | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Gamba Osaka
- Gamba Osaka goals
- Fagiano Okayama FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Gamba Osaka | Fagiano Okayama FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.12 | 1.02 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.42 | 1.36 |
| Shots | 13.6 | 13.1 |
| On target | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| Corners | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 42 |
Form
- 01.11away · Machida Zelvia0:0
- 24.10Kyoto Sanga FC2:2
- 21.10away · Avispa Fukuoka2:1
- 17.10away · Shimizu S-Pulse2:2
- 09.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 31.10FC Tokyo0:4
- 25.10away · Kawasaki Frontale1:2
- 21.10Mito Hollyhock2:0
- 18.10Vissel Kobe0:3
- 10.10away · Avispa Fukuoka1:2
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Gamba Osaka — Fagiano Okayama FC2:2
- 22.02.2026Fagiano Okayama FC — Gamba Osaka1:2
- 10.08.2025Gamba Osaka — Fagiano Okayama FC0:3
- 26.02.2025Fagiano Okayama FC — Gamba Osaka2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 13 | 7 | -6 | 21 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 13 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 13 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 13 | 2 | -11 | 11 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kyoto Sanga FCUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Machida ZelviaV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary6423131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaYokohama F.Marinospreliminary7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampuspreliminary3031392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyopreliminary2025552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
- Kawasaki FrontaleAvispa Fukuokapreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →