J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 08:00 (UTC+3)

Tokyo Verdy — Nagoya Grampus

Model prediction for 21 November

Tokyo Verdy30%

Draw31%

Nagoya Grampus39%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Nagoya Grampus are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings Nagoya Grampus are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Tokyo Verdy — No. 17, 11 pts; Nagoya Grampus — No. 11, 14 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Last 4 meetings: Tokyo Verdy 2 wins, Nagoya Grampus 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy — Nagoya Grampus What is xG?		1.1–1.3
Tokyo Verdy not to lose		61%
Nagoya Grampus not to lose		70%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy goals
Nagoya Grampus goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Tokyo Verdy	Nagoya Grampus
Goals scored per match	0.9	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.8	1.7
xG per match	0.78	1.18
Opponents’ xG	1.68	1.49
Shots	9.2	12.9
On target	2.5	3.3
Corners	3.9	4.4
Cards	1.6	1.3
Possession, %	43	55

Averages per match: Tokyo Verdy — the last 10, Nagoya Grampus — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Tokyo Verdy

01.11away · V-Varen Nagasaki2:1
24.10Avispa Fukuoka3:1
21.10away · Yokohama F.Marinos2:2
17.10FC Tokyo0:4
11.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:2

Nagoya Grampus

31.10away · Vissel Kobe1:3
25.10Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
21.10Cerezo Osaka1:1
17.10away · Kashiwa Reysol3:1
11.10away · Kawasaki Frontale2:1

Head to head

05.07.2025Nagoya Grampus — Tokyo Verdy0:0
15.03.2025Tokyo Verdy — Nagoya Grampus2:1
11.08.2024Nagoya Grampus — Tokyo Verdy1:0
22.06.2024Tokyo Verdy — Nagoya Grampus1:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10	Fagiano Okayama FC	13	5	1	7	15–21	-6	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	13	4	2	7	15–21	-6	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13–23	-10	14
16	Gamba Osaka	13	2	6	5	14–21	-7	12
17	Tokyo Verdy	13	2	5	6	11–22	-11	11
18, Relegation	JEF United Chiba	13	2	4	7	15–24	-9	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

J1 League on the same day

08:00
Kyoto Sanga FCUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary
312841
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
08:00
Machida ZelviaV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary
642313
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
08:00
Sanfrecce HiroshimaYokohama F.Marinospreliminary
701911
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
09:00
Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyopreliminary
202555
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
09:00
Kawasaki FrontaleAvispa Fukuokapreliminary
552718
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
10:00
Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary
442927
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →