J1 League (Japan), round 15 · Saturday, 21 November, 08:00 (UTC+3)

Kyoto Sanga FC — Urawa Red Diamonds

Model prediction for 21 November

Kyoto Sanga FC31%

Draw28%

Urawa Red Diamonds41%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Urawa Red Diamonds are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Urawa Red Diamonds higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Kyoto Sanga FC — No. 14, 13 pts; Urawa Red Diamonds — No. 9, 21 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Kyoto Sanga FC 0 wins, Urawa Red Diamonds 2, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga FC — Urawa Red Diamonds What is xG?		1.3–1.4
Kyoto Sanga FC not to lose		59%
Urawa Red Diamonds not to lose		69%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Kyoto Sanga FC
Kyoto Sanga FC goals
Urawa Red Diamonds goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Kyoto Sanga FC	Urawa Red Diamonds
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.6
xG per match	1.06	1.35
Opponents’ xG	1.43	1.15
Shots	10.7	16.3
On target	3.9	4.1
Corners	3.7	6.0
Cards	1.8	0.8
Possession, %	42	56

Averages per match: Kyoto Sanga FC — the last 10, Urawa Red Diamonds — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kyoto Sanga FC

31.10Shimizu S-Pulse2:0
24.10away · Gamba Osaka2:2
21.10Kashima Antlers2:2
17.10away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
10.10Machida Zelvia0:1

Urawa Red Diamonds

31.10away · Kashiwa Reysol0:4
25.10V-Varen Nagasaki1:0
21.10JEF United Chiba3:2
17.10away · Mito Hollyhock1:0
10.10away · FC Tokyo0:3

Head to head

16.04.2025Urawa Red Diamonds — Kyoto Sanga FC2:1
22.02.2025Kyoto Sanga FC — Urawa Red Diamonds1:1
14.07.2024Kyoto Sanga FC — Urawa Red Diamonds0:0
15.05.2024Urawa Red Diamonds — Kyoto Sanga FC3:0
15.09.2023Urawa Red Diamonds — Kyoto Sanga FC0:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8	Yokohama F.Marinos	13	5	6	2	20–14	+6	21
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	13	7	0	6	21–27	-6	21
10	Fagiano Okayama FC	13	5	1	7	15–21	-6	16
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10–22	-12	14
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	13	3	4	6	17–23	-6	13
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	13	3	3	7	16–21	-5	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

J1 League on the same day

08:00
Machida ZelviaV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary
642313
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
08:00
Sanfrecce HiroshimaYokohama F.Marinospreliminary
701911
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
08:00
Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampuspreliminary
303139
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
09:00
Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyopreliminary
202555
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
09:00
Kawasaki FrontaleAvispa Fukuokapreliminary
552718
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
10:00
Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary
442927
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →