Serie B, round 13 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:00 (UTC+3)

Cesena — Ascoli

Model prediction for 24 November

Cesena36%

Draw29%

Ascoli35%

Model estimate at 22:13 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Cesena 36%, Ascoli 35%, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings Cesena are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Ascoli higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Cesena — No. 13, 12 pts; Ascoli — No. 3, 19 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
Ascoli: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cesena — Ascoli What is xG?		1.3–1.3
Cesena not to lose		65%
Ascoli not to lose		64%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Cesena
Cesena goals
Ascoli goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Cesena	Ascoli
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded per match	1.4	0.6
xG per match	1.29	1.55
Opponents’ xG	1.20	1.21
Shots	13.1	13.7
On target	3.4	4.5
Corners	4.3	6.6
Cards	2.2	2.1
Possession, %	45	63

Averages per match: Cesena — the last 10, Ascoli — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Cesena

31.10away · Südtirol1:1
27.10Empoli2:1
24.10away · Modena0:3
18.10Avellino1:1
10.10away · Benevento0:2

Ascoli

01.11away · Arezzo0:0
27.10Sampdoria2:0
24.10away · Catanzaro6:1
17.10Empoli1:1
10.10away · Südtirol0:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Promotion	Modena	10	6	2	2	18–10	+8	20
3, Promotion play-offs	Ascoli	10	5	4	1	16–6	+10	19
4, Promotion play-offs	Mantova	10	5	3	2	15–11	+4	18
12	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	10–11	-1	12
13	Cesena	10	2	6	2	11–14	-3	12
14	Arezzo	10	3	2	5	9–19	-10	11

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

21:00
Juve StabiaCatanzaropreliminary
502822
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:00
BeneventoEmpolipreliminary
602515
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
22:00
Virtus EntellaHellas Veronapreliminary
333037
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
22:00
LR VicenzaCarraresepreliminary
443026
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
22:00
PalermoSüdtirolpreliminary
662211
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →