Serie B, round 13 · Tuesday, 24 November, 22:00 (UTC+3)

Palermo — Südtirol

Model prediction for 24 November

Palermo66%

Draw22%

Südtirol11%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Palermo are clear favourites: 66% against 11% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings Palermo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Palermo are 313 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Palermo — No. 1, 26 pts; Südtirol — No. 9, 14 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
Palermo: unbeaten in 5; Südtirol: winless in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Palermo 4 wins, Südtirol 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Palermo — Südtirol What is xG?		2.0–0.8
Palermo not to lose		89%
Südtirol not to lose		34%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		53%
Total under 2.5		47%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Palermo
Palermo goals
Südtirol goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Palermo	Südtirol
Goals scored per match	2.8	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.4	1.1
xG per match	2.30	1.00
Opponents’ xG	1.57	1.56
Shots	17.7	11.5
On target	6.5	3.4
Corners	3.9	3.1
Cards	1.2	1.8
Possession, %	49	52

Averages per match: Palermo — the last 10, Südtirol — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Palermo

01.11LR Vicenza3:1
28.10away · Pisa3:3
25.10Carrarese2:1
17.10away · Mantova2:0
10.10away · Empoli4:2

Südtirol

31.10Cesena1:1
27.10away · Padova0:2
24.10Sampdoria1:1
18.10away · Juve Stabia0:3
10.10Ascoli0:0

Head to head

21.02.2026Palermo — Südtirol3:0
14.09.2025Südtirol — Palermo0:2
01.05.2025Palermo — Südtirol1:2
30.09.2024Südtirol — Palermo1:3
10.05.2024Südtirol — Palermo0:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Palermo	10	8	2	0	24–12	+12	26
2, Promotion	Modena	10	6	2	2	18–10	+8	20
8, Promotion play-offs	Pisa	10	4	3	3	18–15	+3	15
9	Südtirol	10	3	5	2	11–10	+1	14
10	Padova	10	4	2	4	10–11	-1	14

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

21:00
Juve StabiaCatanzaropreliminary
502822
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:00
BeneventoEmpolipreliminary
602515
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
22:00
CesenaAscolipreliminary
362935
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
22:00
Virtus EntellaHellas Veronapreliminary
333037
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
22:00
LR VicenzaCarraresepreliminary
443026
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →