Chilean Liga de Primera, round 28 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Colo Colo — Universidad Católica
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Colo Colo are clear favourites: 57% against 21% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Colo Colo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Colo Colo are 122 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Colo Colo — No. 1, 58 pts; Universidad Católica — No. 3, 46 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Colo Colo 3 wins, Universidad Católica 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Colo Colo — Universidad Católica What is xG? | 2.1–1.3 | |
| Colo Colo not to lose | 79% | |
| Universidad Católica not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Colo Colo
- Colo Colo goals
- Universidad Católica goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Colo Colo | Universidad Católica |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Shots | 15.8 | 10.4 |
| On target | 5.6 | 2.6 |
| Corners | 7.4 | 3.7 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| Possession, % | 64 | 47 |
Form
- 31.10Universidad de Concepción6:1
- 25.10away · Palestino1:1
- 11.10away · Coquimbo Unido2:5
- 13.09Deportes Concepción1:1
- 06.09away · Huachipato0:0
- 01.11Universidad de Chile1:0
- 29.10Audax Italiano1:1
- 25.10away · Unión La Calera1:3
- 13.09away · Palestino3:2
- 06.09away · Everton CD1:0
Head to head
- 25.05.2026Universidad Católica — Colo Colo1:2
- 16.08.2025Colo Colo — Universidad Católica1:4
- 06.07.2025Universidad Católica — Colo Colo2:0
- 04.10.2024Colo Colo — Universidad Católica1:0
- 21.04.2024Universidad Católica — Colo Colo0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 26 | 18 | +28 | 58 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 26 | 14 | +24 | 48 |
| 3 | Universidad Católica | 26 | 14 | +16 | 46 |
| 4 | Deportes Limache | 26 | 12 | +11 | 40 |
Chilean Primera on the same day
- CobresalAudax Italianopreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Coquimbo UnidoEverton CDpreliminary4725281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Deportes LimacheLa Serenapreliminary5123261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- PalestinoUnión La Calerapreliminary5224241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- O'HigginsUniversidad de Chilepreliminary2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- HuachipatoDeportes Concepciónpreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Universidad de ConcepciónÑublensepreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →