Chilean Liga de Primera, round 28 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Palestino — Unión La Calera
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Palestino are clear favourites: 52% against 24% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Palestino are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Palestino are 203 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Palestino — No. 6, 38 pts; Unión La Calera — No. 16, 21 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Palestino: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Palestino 3 wins, Unión La Calera 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Palestino — Unión La Calera What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Palestino not to lose | 76% | |
| Unión La Calera not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Palestino
- Palestino goals
- Unión La Calera goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Palestino | Unión La Calera |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 16.8 | 11.3 |
| On target | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 60 | 47 |
Form
- 03.11away · Deportes Concepción0:1
- 25.10Colo Colo1:1
- 12.10away · Deportes Limache2:2
- 13.09Universidad Católica2:3
- 07.09Universidad de Concepción2:1
- 31.10away · Coquimbo Unido0:1
- 25.10Universidad Católica3:1
- 11.10away · Deportes Concepción1:1
- 15.09Deportes Limache1:0
- 06.09away · O'Higgins1:2
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Unión La Calera — Palestino1:2
- 30.08.2025Unión La Calera — Palestino1:2
- 14.04.2025Palestino — Unión La Calera1:0
- 18.08.2024Unión La Calera — Palestino2:1
- 18.03.2024Palestino — Unión La Calera0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Everton CD | 26 | 11 | +10 | 40 |
| 6 | Palestino | 26 | 11 | +2 | 38 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 26 | 10 | -5 | 36 |
| 15, Relegation | Universidad de Concepción | 26 | 6 | -28 | 23 |
| 16, Relegation | Unión La Calera | 26 | 5 | -20 | 21 |
Chilean Primera on the same day
- Colo ColoUniversidad Católicapreliminary5722211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- CobresalAudax Italianopreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Coquimbo UnidoEverton CDpreliminary4725281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Deportes LimacheLa Serenapreliminary5123261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- O'HigginsUniversidad de Chilepreliminary2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- HuachipatoDeportes Concepciónpreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Universidad de ConcepciónÑublensepreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →