Chilean Liga de Primera, round 28 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Deportes Limache — La Serena
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Deportes Limache are clear favourites: 51% against 26% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportes Limache are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Deportes Limache are 115 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Deportes Limache — No. 4, 40 pts; La Serena — No. 11, 34 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 3 meetings: Deportes Limache 1 win, La Serena 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportes Limache — La Serena What is xG? | 2.0–1.3 | |
| Deportes Limache not to lose | 74% | |
| La Serena not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
181 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Deportes Limache
- Deportes Limache goals
- La Serena goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Deportes Limache | La Serena |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| On target | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 3.5 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 46 |
Form
- 03.11Audax Italiano2:0
- 26.10away · Universidad de Concepción1:0
- 12.10Palestino2:2
- 15.09away · Unión La Calera0:1
- 08.09Cobresal3:0
- 01.11away · Huachipato0:0
- 24.10Deportes Concepción3:1
- 11.10away · Everton CD2:3
- 13.09Universidad de Chile0:3
- 06.09Ñublense2:1
Head to head
- 24.05.2026La Serena — Deportes Limache4:1
- 07.12.2025Deportes Limache — La Serena1:0
- 22.06.2025La Serena — Deportes Limache1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Católica | 26 | 14 | +16 | 46 |
| 4 | Deportes Limache | 26 | 12 | +11 | 40 |
| 5 | Everton CD | 26 | 11 | +10 | 40 |
| 10 | Ñublense | 26 | 9 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | La Serena | 26 | 8 | -3 | 34 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 26 | 9 | -9 | 31 |
Chilean Primera on the same day
- Colo ColoUniversidad Católicapreliminary5722211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- CobresalAudax Italianopreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Coquimbo UnidoEverton CDpreliminary4725281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- PalestinoUnión La Calerapreliminary5224241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- O'HigginsUniversidad de Chilepreliminary2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- HuachipatoDeportes Concepciónpreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Universidad de ConcepciónÑublensepreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →