Chilean Liga de Primera, round 28 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Universidad de Concepción — Ñublense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Universidad de Concepción 37%, Ñublense 35%, draw 28%.
The model expects few goals: 2.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ñublense are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Universidad de Concepción higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Universidad de Concepción — No. 15, 23 pts; Ñublense — No. 10, 35 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Universidad de Concepción: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Universidad de Concepción — Ñublense What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Universidad de Concepción not to lose | 65% | |
| Ñublense not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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- Handicap Universidad de Concepción
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- Ñublense goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Universidad de Concepción | Ñublense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 11.7 |
| On target | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 48 |
Form
- 31.10away · Colo Colo1:6
- 26.10Deportes Limache0:1
- 10.10away · Cobresal1:1
- 03.10Huachipato0:2
- 07.09away · Palestino1:2
- 01.11away · O'Higgins0:1
- 25.10Coquimbo Unido2:1
- 12.10away · Universidad de Chile0:6
- 12.09Everton CD1:3
- 06.09away · La Serena1:2
Head to head
- 23.05.2026Ñublense — Universidad de Concepción2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportes Concepción | 26 | 10 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Ñublense | 26 | 9 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | La Serena | 26 | 8 | -3 | 34 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 26 | 7 | -10 | 27 |
| 15, Relegation | Universidad de Concepción | 26 | 6 | -28 | 23 |
| 16, Relegation | Unión La Calera | 26 | 5 | -20 | 21 |
Chilean Primera on the same day
- Colo ColoUniversidad Católicapreliminary5722211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- CobresalAudax Italianopreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Coquimbo UnidoEverton CDpreliminary4725281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Deportes LimacheLa Serenapreliminary5123261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- PalestinoUnión La Calerapreliminary5224241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- O'HigginsUniversidad de Chilepreliminary2827452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- HuachipatoDeportes Concepciónpreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →