Ukrainian Premier League, round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Dynamo Kyiv — Obolon Kyiv
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Dynamo Kyiv are clear favourites: 85% against 4% for the opponent, draw 11%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Dynamo Kyiv are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
- Dynamo Kyiv are 343 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Dynamo Kyiv — No. 3, 22 pts; Obolon Kyiv — No. 14, 7 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Dynamo Kyiv 4 wins, Obolon Kyiv 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dynamo Kyiv — Obolon Kyiv What is xG? | 2.5–0.5 | |
| Dynamo Kyiv not to lose | 96% | |
| Obolon Kyiv not to lose | 15% | |
| No draw | 89% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Dynamo Kyiv
- Dynamo Kyiv goals
- Obolon Kyiv goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Dynamo Kyiv | Obolon Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 11.1 | 4.2 |
| On target | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| Corners | 6.4 | 2.3 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Possession, % | 60 | 42 |
Form
- 02.11away · Kryvbas2:0
- 23.10Kudrivka3:1
- 18.10away · Polissya Zhytomyr1:3
- 11.10Karpaty1:0
- 19.09away · Zorya2:0
- 30.10away · Shakhtar Donetsk0:2
- 23.10away · Polissya Zhytomyr0:3
- 16.10Veres Rivne2:0
- 18.09away · Chornomorets Odesa1:1
- 12.09away · LNZ Cherkasy1:3
Head to head
- 13.03.2026Dynamo Kyiv — Obolon Kyiv2:1
- 13.09.2025Obolon Kyiv — Dynamo Kyiv2:2
- 18.04.2025Dynamo Kyiv — Obolon Kyiv3:0
- 19.10.2024Obolon Kyiv — Dynamo Kyiv1:5
- 11.12.2023Dynamo Kyiv — Obolon Kyiv2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Polissya Zhytomyr | 10 | 8 | +15 | 25 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Dynamo Kyiv | 10 | 7 | +7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Liviy Bereh | 9 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Obolon Kyiv | 10 | 1 | -13 | 7 |
| 15, Relegation | Kryvbas | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- 353332XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- KarpatyZoryapreliminary5128201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- FC Kolos KovalivkaFC Kharkivpreliminary303338XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1
- KryvbasKudrivkapreliminary6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- Liviy BerehShakhtar Donetskpreliminary822702The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.3
- LNZ CherkasyPolissya Zhytomyrpreliminary2533422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.0
- Veres RivneBukovyna Chernivtsipreliminary353431XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 85% will not happen in roughly 15 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →