Ukrainian Premier League, round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Liviy Bereh — Shakhtar Donetsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites: 70% against 8% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 33%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 1.6 goals per match stronger.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are 250 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Liviy Bereh — No. 13, 8 pts; Shakhtar Donetsk — No. 1, 28 pts. A gap of 20 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Liviy Bereh 0 wins, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Liviy Bereh — Shakhtar Donetsk What is xG? | 0.5–1.8 | |
| Liviy Bereh not to lose | 30% | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 92% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 33% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 67% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Liviy Bereh
- Liviy Bereh goals
- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Liviy Bereh | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Shots | 5.2 | 14.0 |
| On target | 1.9 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 62 |
Form
- 24.10LNZ Cherkasy0:0
- 19.10away · FC Kharkiv1:2
- 12.10Zorya1:3
- 19.09away · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi2:0
- 13.09away · Polissya Zhytomyr0:1
- 03.11Sporting CP0:1
- 30.10Obolon Kyiv2:0
- 24.10Zorya0:0
- 21.10away · Inter0:1
- 17.10FC Kolos Kovalivka2:1
Head to head
- 24.02.2025Shakhtar Donetsk — Liviy Bereh1:0
- 18.08.2024Liviy Bereh — Shakhtar Donetsk0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 9 | +17 | 28 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Polissya Zhytomyr | 10 | 8 | +15 | 25 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 11 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Liviy Bereh | 9 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Obolon Kyiv | 10 | 1 | -13 | 7 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- 353332XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- Dynamo KyivObolon Kyivpreliminary851141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- KarpatyZoryapreliminary5128201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- FC Kolos KovalivkaFC Kharkivpreliminary303338XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1
- KryvbasKudrivkapreliminary6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- LNZ CherkasyPolissya Zhytomyrpreliminary2533422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.0
- Veres RivneBukovyna Chernivtsipreliminary353431XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →