Ukrainian Premier League, round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Karpaty — Zorya
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Karpaty are clear favourites: 51% against 20% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Karpaty are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Karpaty are 117 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Karpaty — No. 5, 19 pts; Zorya — No. 6, 18 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Zorya: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 4 meetings: Karpaty 0 wins, Zorya 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Karpaty — Zorya What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| Karpaty not to lose | 80% | |
| Zorya not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Karpaty
- Karpaty goals
- Zorya goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Karpaty | Zorya |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 8.1 | 10.8 |
| On target | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 51 |
Form
- 02.11Kudrivka5:0
- 25.10away · Chornomorets Odesa0:0
- 18.10Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi2:2
- 11.10away · Dynamo Kyiv0:1
- 20.09Veres Rivne1:1
- 02.11Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi1:0
- 24.10away · Shakhtar Donetsk0:0
- 17.10Chornomorets Odesa2:1
- 12.10away · Liviy Bereh3:1
- 19.09Dynamo Kyiv0:2
Head to head
- 23.05.2026Karpaty — Zorya1:2
- 05.12.2025Zorya — Karpaty1:0
- 25.05.2025Karpaty — Zorya1:3
- 02.12.2024Zorya — Karpaty2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 11 | 5 | +14 | 19 |
| 6 | Zorya | 11 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- 353332XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- Dynamo KyivObolon Kyivpreliminary851141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- FC Kolos KovalivkaFC Kharkivpreliminary303338XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1
- KryvbasKudrivkapreliminary6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- Liviy BerehShakhtar Donetskpreliminary822702The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.3
- LNZ CherkasyPolissya Zhytomyrpreliminary2533422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.0
- Veres RivneBukovyna Chernivtsipreliminary353431XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →