Norwegian Eliteserien, round 26 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Fredrikstad — Brann
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Evenly matched: Fredrikstad 33%, Brann 38%, draw 28%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Brann are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Fredrikstad higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Fredrikstad — No. 11, 29 pts; Brann — No. 7, 32 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Fredrikstad: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Fredrikstad 2 wins, Brann 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fredrikstad — Brann What is xG? | 1.5–1.7 | |
| Fredrikstad not to lose | 62% | |
| Brann not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Fredrikstad | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.32 | 1.88 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.76 | 1.93 |
| Shots | 13.2 | 17.4 |
| On target | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 7.9 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 62 |
Form
- 31.10Rosenborg0:3
- 25.10away · Molde1:5
- 17.10away · Viking2:3
- 11.10Tromsø1:1
- 20.09away · Vålerenga1:1
- 01.11Molde3:2
- 25.10away · Lillestrøm2:3
- 22.10away · FK Kauno Žalgiris4:1
- 18.10away · Vålerenga1:3
- 15.10Lincoln Red Imps FC2:1
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Brann — Fredrikstad3:1
- 28.09.2025Brann — Fredrikstad1:0
- 29.03.2025Fredrikstad — Brann3:0
- 18.08.2024Fredrikstad — Brann0:4
- 07.04.2024Brann — Fredrikstad0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tromsø | 25 | 11 | +5 | 40 |
| 7 | Brann | 25 | 10 | +3 | 32 |
| 8 | Vålerenga | 25 | 9 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 | KFUM | 25 | 8 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 25 | 8 | -15 | 29 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 25 | 7 | -8 | 27 |
Eliteserien on the same day
- 1924572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
- 781571The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 5622211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.8
- 3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- 2326512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →