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Norwegian Eliteserien, round 26 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)

Lillestrøm — Aalesund

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Model prediction for 8 November

Lillestrøm56%
Draw22%
Aalesund21%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Lillestrøm are clear favourites: 56% against 21% for the opponent, draw 22%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 69%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Lillestrøm are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Lillestrøm are 223 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Lillestrøm — No. 5, 42 pts; Aalesund — No. 14, 24 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lillestrøm 3 wins, Aalesund 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lillestrøm — Aalesund What is xG?2.3–1.4
Lillestrøm not to lose79%
Aalesund not to lose44%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes69%
Both teams to score: no31%
Total over 2.570%
Total under 2.530%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Lillestrøm
  • Lillestrøm goals
  • Aalesund goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLillestrømAalesund
Goals scored per match1.42.2
Goals conceded per match1.72.2
xG per match1.591.63
Opponents’ xG1.822.26
Shots13.716.2
On target4.35.8
Corners4.56.1
Cards1.42.5
Possession, %4641

Averages per match: Lillestrøm — the last 10, Aalesund — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lillestrøm

  • 01.11away · Start1:0
  • 25.10Brann3:2
  • 22.10Real Sociedad0:6
  • 18.10away · Sandefjord2:0
  • 15.10away · Sparta Prague1:1

Aalesund

  • 31.10Sandefjord3:4
  • 25.10away · Sarpsborg 081:2
  • 17.10away · Kristiansund4:1
  • 11.10Sarpsborg 082:4
  • 19.09away · Molde2:1

Head to head

  • 15.03.2026Aalesund — Lillestrøm1:3
  • 03.09.2023Aalesund — Lillestrøm1:1
  • 19.07.2023Lillestrøm — Aalesund5:1
  • 06.11.2022Aalesund — Lillestrøm2:1
  • 28.04.2022Lillestrøm — Aalesund2:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Europa League or Conference LeagueRosenborg25134849–31+1843
5Lillestrøm25133936–33+342
6Tromsø25117743–38+540
13Hamarkameratene25761235–53-1827
14, Relegation play-offAalesund25591143–57-1424
15, RelegationKristiansund25651429–51-2223

Season 2026

Full table

Eliteserien on the same day

  • TromsøBodø/Glimt
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
  • VikingKFUM
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
  • HamarkamerateneSarpsborg 08
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
  • SandefjordMolde
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.4
  • FredrikstadBrann
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →