AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Allstate Arena
Chicago Wolves — Manitoba Moose
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1:6Missed
In short
Final score 1:6: the model's most likely outcome, Chicago Wolves to win (55% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Chicago Wolves are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.
Why
- Chicago Wolves are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.6.
- Manitoba Moose: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chicago Wolves — Manitoba Moose | 2.9–2.6 | |
| Chicago Wolves to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Manitoba Moose to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 52% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 48% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Chicago Wolves
- Chicago Wolves goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10away · Manitoba Moose3:8
- 03.10away · Manitoba Moose0:3
- 20.06away · Toronto Marlies3:4
- 19.06away · Toronto Marlies4:3 OT
- 17.06away · Toronto Marlies0:1
- 10.10away · Grand Rapids Griffins1:2
- 04.10Chicago Wolves8:3
- 03.10Chicago Wolves3:0
- 09.05away · Grand Rapids Griffins2:5
- 07.05away · Grand Rapids Griffins2:4
Head to head
- 04.10.2026Manitoba Moose — Chicago Wolves8:3
- 03.10.2026Manitoba Moose — Chicago Wolves3:0
- 16.04.2026Chicago Wolves — Manitoba Moose3:2 SO
- 12.01.2026Chicago Wolves — Manitoba Moose4:3 OT
- 04.12.2025Chicago Wolves — Manitoba Moose0:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Milwaukee Admirals | 2 | 2 | +5 | 4 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Manitoba Moose | 4 | 3 | +12 | 6 | .750 |
| 4 | Laval Rocket | 4 | 3 | +9 | 6 | .750 |
| 31 | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 3 | 0 | -7 | 1 | .167 |
| 32 | Chicago Wolves | 4 | 0 | -17 | 0 | .000 |
Next matches
- Grand Rapids GriffinsChicago Wolves11 October · AHL62381The most likely outcome came true: 121%5:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.4
- Manitoba MooseTexas Stars17 October · AHL48522The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.5
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →