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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

Pelicans — SaiPa

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Model prediction for 28 October

Pelicans38%
Draw in regulation23%
SaiPa39%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Pelicans 49%, SaiPa 51% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pelicans — SaiPa2.3–2.3
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Pelicans
  • Pelicans goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Pelicans

  • 09.10Karpat2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · KooKoo6:3
  • 26.09IFK Helsinki2:1
  • 22.09away · Jokerit0:3
  • 19.09JYP1:3

SaiPa

  • 08.10JYP1:2
  • 03.10Jokerit3:2
  • 02.10away · KalPa3:4
  • 30.09away · Karpat1:4
  • 26.09away · Tappara4:2

Head to head

  • 11.03.2026Pelicans — SaiPa4:1
  • 07.03.2026SaiPa — Pelicans4:2
  • 20.11.2025SaiPa — Pelicans2:3 OT
  • 27.09.2025Pelicans — SaiPa2:5
  • 08.03.2025Pelicans — SaiPa3:4

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IFK HelsinkiIlvespreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • JukuritLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • JYPTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.6
  • KarpatHameenlinnapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • Kiekko-EspooTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KooKooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →