Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Sunday, 4 October, MSK

Vacherot V. — Fils A.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Vacherot V.28%
Fils A.72%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Fils A. to win (72%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 72% fails in about 28 matches out of 100 on average.

Fils A. are clear favourites: 72% against 28% for the opponent.

Over 23.5 games — 49%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Vacherot V. 1666, Fils A. 1824.

Probabilities

Games over 23.549%
Games under 23.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Vacherot V. games
  • Fils A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Vacherot V.

  • 02.10Tsitsipas S.2:1
  • 30.09Blockx A.2:0
  • 26.09Harris L.0:2

Fils A.

  • 02.10Tiafoe F.2:0
  • 30.09van Assche L.2:0
  • 29.09Majchrzak K.2:1
  • 28.09Damm M.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Lehecka J.Vacherot V.5 October · ATP · Tokyo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Fils A.Kotov P.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.25.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →