Saudi Pro League, round 13 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Al Ahli — Al-Taawoun
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Ahli are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 16%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
- Al Ahli are 349 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Al Ahli — No. 6, 15 pts; Al-Taawoun — No. 17, 3 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Al-Taawoun: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Al Ahli 5 wins, Al-Taawoun 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Ahli — Al-Taawoun What is xG? | 2.4–0.8 | |
| Al Ahli not to lose | 92% | |
| Al-Taawoun not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Ahli
- Al Ahli goals
- Al-Taawoun goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Al Fateh FC4:0
- 11.09Al Hazem3:1
- 08.09away · Al Qadsiah2:3
- 04.09Al Riyadh5:0
- 01.09away · Al Hilal0:3
- 11.10away · Al Shabab0:3
- 12.09Al Hilal0:6
- 08.09away · Al Hazem0:1
- 05.09Al Fateh FC0:0
- 28.08away · Al Nassr FC1:2
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Al-Taawoun — Al Ahli1:2
- 14.01.2026Al Ahli — Al-Taawoun2:1
- 07.05.2025Al Ahli — Al-Taawoun2:0
- 07.12.2024Al-Taawoun — Al Ahli2:4
- 09.03.2024Al-Taawoun — Al Ahli0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neom SC | 8 | 5 | +7 | 16 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 8 | 5 | +10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 16, Relegation | Al Fateh FC | 9 | 1 | -10 | 6 |
| 17, Relegation | Al-Taawoun | 8 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Abha | 7 | 0 | -8 | 2 |
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- AbhaAl Shababpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Al-EttifaqAl Hilalpreliminary717762The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.6
- Al Fateh FCAl Riyadhpreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Al HazemAl Nassr FCpreliminary919722The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.2
- Al IttihadNeom SCpreliminary4429261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Al KholoodAl Khaleejpreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Al-FaisalyAl Diriyahpreliminary2831412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- Al QadsiahAl-Fayhapreliminary831251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →