Saudi Pro League, round 13 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Al Hazem — Al Nassr FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Nassr FC are clear favourites: 72% against 9% for the opponent, draw 19%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Nassr FC are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
- Al Nassr FC are 231 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Al Hazem — No. 10, 9 pts; Al Nassr FC — No. 3, 19 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Al Hazem 0 wins, Al Nassr FC 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Hazem — Al Nassr FC What is xG? | 0.8–2.4 | |
| Al Hazem not to lose | 28% | |
| Al Nassr FC not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Hazem
- Al Hazem goals
- Al Nassr FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10Al Fateh FC2:3
- 10.10Neom SC1:1
- 11.09away · Al Ahli1:3
- 08.09Al-Taawoun1:0
- 05.09away · Al-Faisaly0:0
- 09.10Al Diriyah3:0
- 12.09away · Al Khaleej1:1
- 09.09Abha2:1
- 05.09away · Al Ittihad1:2
- 28.08Al-Taawoun2:1
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Al Nassr FC — Al Hazem4:0
- 25.10.2025Al Hazem — Al Nassr FC0:2
- 29.02.2024Al Nassr FC — Al Hazem4:4
- 02.09.2023Al Hazem — Al Nassr FC1:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Al Nassr FC | 8 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 8 | 5 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Al Hazem | 9 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Al Khaleej | 9 | 1 | -5 | 9 |
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- Al AhliAl-Taawounpreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- AbhaAl Shababpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Al-EttifaqAl Hilalpreliminary717762The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.6
- Al Fateh FCAl Riyadhpreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Al IttihadNeom SCpreliminary4429261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Al KholoodAl Khaleejpreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Al-FaisalyAl Diriyahpreliminary2831412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- Al QadsiahAl-Fayhapreliminary831251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →