PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 1 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · Air Albania Stadium

Albania — Finland

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 12 November

Albania42%
Draw31%
Finland27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Albania are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 31%.

The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 41%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Albania 1612, Finland 1530 — Albania rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Albania — No. 1, 9 pts; Finland — No. 2, 7 pts. A gap of 2 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Albania — Finland What is xG?1.2–0.9
Albania not to lose73%
Finland not to lose58%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes41%
Both teams to score: no59%
Total over 2.534%
Total under 2.566%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Albania
  • Albania goals
  • Finland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAlbaniaFinland
Goals scored per match1.21.3
Goals conceded per match0.91.4
xG per match1.310.87
Opponents’ xG0.750.51
Shots13.112.1
On target3.74.3
Corners5.15.8
Cards2.11.3
Possession, %5454

Averages per match: Albania — the last 9, Finland — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Albania

  • 06.10San Marino2:1
  • 03.10away · Finland1:2
  • 29.09away · San Marino3:0
  • 26.09Belarus2:0
  • 06.06Luxembourg0:1

Finland

  • 06.10away · Belarus0:1
  • 03.10Albania2:1
  • 29.09Belarus0:0
  • 26.09away · San Marino7:0
  • 05.06away · Hungary1:2

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Finland — Albania2:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAlbania43018–3+59
2, Promotion play-offsFinland42119–2+77
3Belarus42115–2+37
4San Marino40041–16-150

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • TurkiyeBelgiumpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
  • ArmeniaCypruspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • ItalyFrancepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • CzechiaSpainpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • EnglandCroatiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
  • San MarinoBelaruspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • MontenegroLatviapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →