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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 2 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · Republican Stadium after Vazgen Sargsyan

Armenia — Cyprus

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Model prediction for 12 November

Armenia43%
Draw26%
Cyprus31%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Armenia are slightly stronger: 43% against 31%, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Armenia 1354, Cyprus 1346 — the teams are almost level on rating.

Facts

  • League table: Armenia — No. 3, 4 pts; Cyprus — No. 2, 7 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 2 meetings: Armenia 0 wins, Cyprus 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Armenia — Cyprus What is xG?1.6–1.3
Armenia not to lose69%
Cyprus not to lose57%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Armenia
  • Armenia goals
  • Cyprus goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatArmeniaCyprus
Goals scored per match0.61.5
Goals conceded per match2.31.0
xG per match0.581.39
Opponents’ xG1.661.31
Shots8.912.3
On target2.64.1
Corners3.64.5
Cards1.42.6
Possession, %4650

Averages per match: Armenia — the last 8, Cyprus — the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Form

Armenia

  • 05.10away · Montenegro0:0
  • 02.10away · Cyprus0:2
  • 28.09Montenegro2:3
  • 25.09Latvia2:0
  • 09.06Moldova1:1

Cyprus

  • 05.10Latvia2:1
  • 02.10Armenia2:0
  • 28.09away · Latvia0:0
  • 25.09away · Montenegro1:2
  • 07.06away · Liechtenstein2:0

Head to head

  • 02.10.2026Cyprus — Armenia2:0
  • 28.03.2023Armenia — Cyprus2:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveMontenegro43107–4+310
2, Promotion play-offsCyprus42115–3+27
3Armenia41124–5-14
4Latvia40132–6-41

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • TurkiyeBelgiumpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
  • ItalyFrancepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • CzechiaSpainpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • EnglandCroatiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
  • AlbaniaFinlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • San MarinoBelaruspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • MontenegroLatviapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →