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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 3 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · epet ARENA

Czechia — Spain

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Model prediction for 12 November

Czechia4%
Draw13%
Spain83%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Spain are clear favourites: 83% against 4% for the opponent, draw 13%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Czechia 1656, Spain 2287 — Spain clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Czechia — No. 4, 0 pts; Spain — No. 1, 12 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Czechia 0 wins, Spain 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Czechia — Spain What is xG?0.6–2.5
Czechia not to lose17%
Spain not to lose96%
No draw87%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.561%
Total under 2.539%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Czechia
  • Czechia goals
  • Spain goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatCzechiaSpain
Goals scored per match1.42.2
Goals conceded per match2.00.6
xG per match1.121.92
Opponents’ xG1.510.59
Shots10.115.0
On target3.16.4
Corners4.45.7
Cards1.30.9
Possession, %4363

Averages per match: Czechia — the last 10, Spain — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Czechia

  • 06.10away · England0:3
  • 03.10away · Spain1:3
  • 29.09England0:2
  • 26.09Croatia1:2
  • 25.06Mexico0:3

Spain

  • 06.10away · Croatia2:1
  • 03.10Czechia3:1
  • 29.09Croatia4:1
  • 26.09away · England3:2
  • 19.07Argentina1:0

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Spain — Czechia3:1
  • 12.06.2022Spain — Czechia2:0
  • 05.06.2022Czechia — Spain2:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsSpain440012–5+712
2, Quarter-finalsEngland430114–3+119
3, Relegation play-offCroatia41034–14-103
4, RelegationCzechia40042–10-80

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • TurkiyeBelgiumpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
  • ArmeniaCypruspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • ItalyFrancepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • EnglandCroatiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
  • AlbaniaFinlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • San MarinoBelaruspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • MontenegroLatviapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 83% will not happen in roughly 17 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →