UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 1 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · Gürsel Aksel
Turkiye — Belgium
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 12 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Belgium are clear favourites: 55% against 22% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Turkiye 1768, Belgium 1956 — Belgium clearly rated higher.
Facts
- League table: Turkiye — No. 4, 0 pts; Belgium — No. 3, 6 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Turkiye — Belgium What is xG? | 1.3–2.0 | |
| Turkiye not to lose | 45% | |
| Belgium not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Turkiye
- Turkiye goals
- Belgium goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Turkiye | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.41 | 1.62 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.13 | 1.43 |
| Shots | 18.2 | 16.5 |
| On target | 5.3 | 5.6 |
| Corners | 7.4 | 3.8 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 56 | 47 |
Form
Head to head
- 02.10.2026Belgium — Turkiye3:0
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- ArmeniaCypruspreliminary4326311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- ItalyFrancepreliminary2526492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- CzechiaSpainpreliminary413832The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- EnglandCroatiapreliminary7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- AlbaniaFinlandpreliminary4231271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
- San MarinoBelaruspreliminary29892The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- MontenegroLatviapreliminary6224141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →