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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 2 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · Gradski Stadion Podgorica

Montenegro — Latvia

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Model prediction for 12 November

Montenegro62%
Draw24%
Latvia14%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Montenegro are clear favourites: 62% against 14% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Montenegro 1490, Latvia 1246 — Montenegro clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Montenegro — No. 1, 10 pts; Latvia — No. 4, 1 pt. A gap of 9 pts.
  • Last 4 meetings: Montenegro 2 wins, Latvia 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Montenegro — Latvia What is xG?1.8–0.8
Montenegro not to lose86%
Latvia not to lose38%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Montenegro
  • Montenegro goals
  • Latvia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatMontenegroLatvia
Goals scored per match1.60.8
Goals conceded per match1.91.7
xG per match1.401.07
Opponents’ xG1.101.28
Shots13.99.6
On target5.32.0
Corners5.64.3
Cards1.91.9
Possession, %5446

Averages per match: Montenegro — the last 8, Latvia — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Montenegro

  • 05.10Armenia0:0
  • 02.10away · Latvia2:1
  • 28.09away · Armenia3:2
  • 25.09Cyprus2:1
  • 05.06away · Slovakia2:2

Latvia

  • 05.10away · Cyprus1:2
  • 02.10Montenegro1:2
  • 28.09Cyprus0:0
  • 25.09away · Armenia0:2
  • 09.06Faroe Islands0:1

Head to head

  • 02.10.2026Latvia — Montenegro1:2
  • 07.09.2021Montenegro — Latvia0:0
  • 24.03.2021Latvia — Montenegro1:2
  • 07.10.2020Montenegro — Latvia1:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveMontenegro43107–4+310
2, Promotion play-offsCyprus42115–3+27
3Armenia41124–5-14
4Latvia40132–6-41

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • TurkiyeBelgiumpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
  • ArmeniaCypruspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • ItalyFrancepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • CzechiaSpainpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • EnglandCroatiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
  • AlbaniaFinlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • San MarinoBelaruspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →