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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League C, group 1 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · San Marino Stadium

San Marino — Belarus

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Model prediction for 12 November

San Marino2%
Draw9%
Belarus89%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Belarus are clear favourites: 89% against 2% for the opponent, draw 9%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 37%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: San Marino 820, Belarus 1537 — Belarus clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: San Marino — No. 4, 0 pts; Belarus — No. 3, 7 pts. A gap of 7 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: San Marino — Belarus What is xG?0.5–2.6
San Marino not to lose11%
Belarus not to lose98%
No draw91%
Both teams to score: yes37%
Both teams to score: no63%
Total over 2.559%
Total under 2.541%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap San Marino
  • San Marino goals
  • Belarus goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSan MarinoBelarus
Goals scored per match0.31.0
Goals conceded per match5.31.5
xG per match0.530.78
Opponents’ xG3.461.72
Shots5.39.9
On target1.42.5
Corners2.03.3
Cards3.02.9
Possession, %2938

Averages per match: San Marino — the last 7, Belarus — the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Form

San Marino

  • 06.10away · Albania1:2
  • 03.10away · Belarus0:4
  • 29.09Albania0:3
  • 26.09Finland0:7
  • 09.06away · Azerbaijan1:2

Belarus

  • 06.10Finland1:0
  • 03.10San Marino4:0
  • 29.09away · Finland0:0
  • 26.09away · Albania0:2
  • 09.06Burkina Faso2:2

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Belarus — San Marino4:0

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAlbania43018–3+59
2, Promotion play-offsFinland42119–2+77
3Belarus42115–2+37
4San Marino40041–16-150

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • TurkiyeBelgiumpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
  • ArmeniaCypruspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • ItalyFrancepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • CzechiaSpainpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • EnglandCroatiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
  • AlbaniaFinlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • MontenegroLatviapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 89% will not happen in roughly 11 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →