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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 1 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · Stadio San Siro

Italy — France

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Model prediction for 12 November

Italy25%
Draw26%
France49%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

France are clear favourites: 49% against 25% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Italy 1910, France 2104 — France clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Italy — No. 2, 7 pts; France — No. 1, 10 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Italy 1 win, France 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Italy — France What is xG?1.2–1.6
Italy not to lose51%
France not to lose75%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Italy
  • Italy goals
  • France goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatItalyFrance
Goals scored per match1.62.1
Goals conceded per match1.01.1
xG per match1.391.86
Opponents’ xG1.161.12
Shots16.018.0
On target5.27.3
Corners5.86.5
Cards2.11.1
Possession, %5160

Averages per match: Italy — the last 10, France — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Italy

  • 05.10Turkiye3:1
  • 02.10away · France1:1
  • 28.09away · Turkiye4:1
  • 25.09Belgium0:2
  • 07.06away · Greece1:0

France

  • 05.10Belgium4:1
  • 02.10Italy1:1
  • 28.09away · Belgium1:0
  • 25.09away · Turkiye1:0
  • 19.07England4:6

Head to head

  • 02.10.2026France — Italy1:1
  • 17.11.2024Italy — France1:3
  • 06.09.2024France — Italy1:3

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsFrance43107–2+510
2, Quarter-finalsItaly42118–5+37
3Belgium42026–5+16
4, RelegationTurkiye40042–11-90

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • TurkiyeBelgiumpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
  • ArmeniaCypruspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • CzechiaSpainpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • EnglandCroatiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
  • AlbaniaFinlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • San MarinoBelaruspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • MontenegroLatviapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →