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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 3 · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3) · Wembley Stadium

England — Croatia

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Model prediction for 12 November

England70%
Draw19%
Croatia11%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

England are clear favourites: 70% against 11% for the opponent, draw 19%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: England 2146, Croatia 1856 — England clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: England — No. 2, 9 pts; Croatia — No. 3, 3 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: England 3 wins, Croatia 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: England — Croatia What is xG?2.2–0.9
England not to lose89%
Croatia not to lose30%
No draw81%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.561%
Total under 2.539%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap England
  • England goals
  • Croatia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatEnglandCroatia
Goals scored per match3.01.2
Goals conceded per match1.32.4
xG per match2.090.89
Opponents’ xG1.351.65
Shots14.810.7
On target6.43.7
Corners4.73.5
Cards1.31.4
Possession, %5448

Averages per match: England — the last 10, Croatia — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

England

  • 06.10Czechia3:0
  • 03.10away · Croatia7:0
  • 29.09away · Czechia2:0
  • 26.09Spain2:3
  • 19.07away · France6:4

Croatia

  • 06.10Spain1:2
  • 03.10England0:7
  • 29.09away · Spain1:4
  • 26.09away · Czechia2:1
  • 03.07away · Portugal1:2

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Croatia — England0:7
  • 17.06.2026England — Croatia4:2
  • 13.06.2021England — Croatia1:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsSpain440012–5+712
2, Quarter-finalsEngland430114–3+119
3, Relegation play-offCroatia41034–14-103
4, RelegationCzechia40042–10-80

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • TurkiyeBelgiumpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
  • ArmeniaCypruspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • ItalyFrancepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • CzechiaSpainpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • AlbaniaFinlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • San MarinoBelaruspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • MontenegroLatviapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →