Serie B, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Ascoli — LR Vicenza

Model prediction for 21 November

Ascoli57%

Draw25%

LR Vicenza18%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ascoli are clear favourites: 57% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

By the strength ratings Ascoli are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Ascoli are 198 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Ascoli — No. 3, 19 pts; LR Vicenza — No. 17, 9 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Ascoli: unbeaten in 5.
Last 2 meetings: Ascoli 1 win, LR Vicenza 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ascoli — LR Vicenza What is xG?		1.8–1.0
Ascoli not to lose		82%
LR Vicenza not to lose		43%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		55%
Both teams to score: no		45%
Total over 2.5		53%
Total under 2.5		47%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Ascoli
Ascoli goals
LR Vicenza goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Ascoli	LR Vicenza
Goals scored per match	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded per match	0.6	2.0
xG per match	1.55	1.14
Opponents’ xG	1.21	1.64
Shots	13.7	12.6
On target	4.5	3.0
Corners	6.6	5.7
Cards	2.1	2.4
Possession, %	63	48

Averages per match: Ascoli — the last 10, LR Vicenza — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Ascoli

01.11away · Arezzo0:0
27.10Sampdoria2:0
24.10away · Catanzaro6:1
17.10Empoli1:1
10.10away · Südtirol0:0

LR Vicenza

01.11away · Palermo1:3
27.10Modena1:2
23.10away · Empoli2:0
17.10away · Benevento2:2
10.10Pisa0:3

Head to head

20.03.2022LR Vicenza — Ascoli2:0
06.11.2021Ascoli — LR Vicenza2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Promotion	Modena	10	6	2	2	18–10	+8	20
3, Promotion play-offs	Ascoli	10	5	4	1	16–6	+10	19
4, Promotion play-offs	Mantova	10	5	3	2	15–11	+4	18
16, Relegation play-off	Carrarese	10	3	1	6	9–13	-4	10
17, Relegation play-off	LR Vicenza	10	2	3	5	13–20	-7	9
18, Relegation	Empoli	10	2	2	6	10–17	-7	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

17:00
CarrareseVirtus Entellapreliminary
373132
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
17:00
ModenaJuve Stabiapreliminary
572716
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SampdoriaBeneventopreliminary
393131
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SüdtirolCremonesepreliminary
303139
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
19:15
CatanzaroPalermopreliminary
242650
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
21:30
EmpoliPisapreliminary
262846
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →